Repeat, Violent Felons Re-Offend At 66.6% Rate In Study Of New York Bail System

Those Repeat, Violent Felons Released On Bail Reform Were 60.7% More Likely To Commit A Firearms Offense

A new study recently made findings that are so obvious we have to wonder what took so long; New York bail reform emboldened repeat, violent defendants with lengthy rap sheets.

Now we have a new study by Data Collaborative for Justice to back it up > READ THE STUDY HERE

Violent defendants subject to release on bail reform with a prior record re-offend at a rate of 66.6% over two years.  Thus, it might be said that only one third of that class of defendants are poor, committers of quality of life crimes, at least on the numbers.  Those not subject to bail reform do not do much better—they re-offend at a rate of 59.8%.  So, while it might then be argued that bail reform only increased re-offending by violent repeat defendants by 11.37% over a two-year period after arrest, that is simply not insignificant when we realize that 60-80% of violent crime in urban areas is committed by 3-5% of defendants.  And keep in mind—these are the crimes for which these defendants are caught over a two-year period.

The worst of it, however, is that firearms charges for those with a violent, repeat criminal history was another bad result.  The rate for the “bail reform” group was 4.5% whereas for the group where bail was set, the control group, was 2.8%.  Thus, the rate of committing new firearms offenses is 60.71% higher for the “bail reform” group of repeat, violent felons, admittedly based off a small percentages that are, however, statistically significant.

Leave it to New York to come up with a methodology that can’t possibly show anything – as  if bail reform couldn’t possibly be the sole cause of whether someone commits a new violent crime within a two-year period.  Yes, we know they have tested this for statistical significance, but it seems that limiting the outcomes to what happened during the pendency of release bears more on the success of the type of release conditions imposed.  Surely getting a free bond doesn’t cause crime two-years after a case ends, does it?  This becomes more of a problem when one realizes the control group contains a 23.3% remand in jail rate, whereas the “bail reform” group has a 100.1% release rate (see Ex 4a.1).  Thus, when bail is set, 23.3% are remanded, and thus do not commit crimes during the pendency of their case and show up for court 100% of the time.  The other big missing statistic is did they show up for court?  Bail is designed to guarantee appearance in court.  Punishment is designed to deter crime.

So, if states are looking to increase the arrests of violent felony defendants with criminal records by 11.37%, implement New York bail reform.  If states want to increase illegal firearms offenses among violent, repeat criminals by 60.71%, go ahead and pass New York Bail Reform.  These researchers are saying that implementing New York bail reform will, with scientific certainty, cause that result.

That violent repeat criminals are cloaking themselves as the innocent, indigent under these reforms was not news to us, but it is nice to have some statistics to back it up.  While we question the smokescreen of a methodology, it is nice to know that it confirms the obvious state of affairs on the streets of the Big Apple.